Poland’s Institute Warns Russia Planning Hybrid Attacks on NATO While Escalating Ukraine Air War

The Polish Institute of International Affairs has assessed that Russia is preparing a coordinated campaign to intensify air strikes against Ukraine while simultaneously launching hybrid operations against NATO members, according to analysis released this week ^[1]. The warning marks a significant shift in how analysts view Moscow’s strategic calculus: no longer content with grinding attrition in Ukraine alone, Russian planners appear to be testing whether the alliance will fracture under pressure to its eastern flank.

PISM experts assess that Russia intends to strike at energy infrastructure, transportation networks, telecommunications systems, and port facilities across NATO territory, alongside targeting defense industrial capacity ^[1]. The stated goal, according to the assessment, is to weaken Ukrainian support among Western allies while probing NATO’s collective response mechanisms – a deliberate attempt to create daylight between member states on the question of escalation thresholds.

The timing reflects a pattern Moscow has tested before but never at this scale. Russia has conducted reconnaissance and sabotage operations against European infrastructure for years, but the prospect of coordinated hybrid attacks occurring simultaneously with intensified air campaigns against Ukraine represents a significant escalation in ambition. The strategy appears designed to force NATO into a choice: defend the alliance’s own territory while Ukraine absorbs heavier bombardment, or maintain support for Kyiv while accepting vulnerability at home.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has already signaled the alliance’s position on Russian nuclear rhetoric, stating that NATO possesses “all options for response” to Russian attacks ^[1]. Yet the Polish assessment suggests Moscow may be banking on something more subtle than nuclear brinkmanship – the possibility that sustained economic damage to critical infrastructure, combined with domestic political pressure in allied capitals, could achieve strategic concessions without direct military confrontation.

The assessment arrives as Russia has demonstrated increasing willingness to conduct strikes deep into Ukrainian territory. The intensity of air operations has accelerated throughout 2026, with Ukrainian air defenses absorbing repeated waves of missiles and drones. The addition of a parallel campaign targeting NATO infrastructure would represent a qualitative shift: it transforms the conflict from a regional war into something approaching a direct challenge to the postwar security order.

What remains unclear is whether this represents Russian strategic confidence or desperation. The assessment could indicate Moscow believes it has achieved sufficient military leverage to extract concessions through coercive diplomacy. Alternatively, it could signal that Russian planners, facing the prospect of indefinite stalemate in Ukraine, are attempting to create new pressure points. The distinction matters for how NATO responds. If Russia is testing resolve, capitulation invites further escalation. If Russia is signaling desperation, the alliance’s best move may be to maintain support for Ukraine while hardening its own defenses – essentially calling Moscow’s bluff.

European capitals have already begun civil defense preparations. Poland has issued guidance on responding to air attacks, and broader EU discussions about energy security and critical infrastructure resilience have intensified. The question now is whether these preparations will prove sufficient, or whether Russia has identified vulnerabilities in European defenses that no amount of contingency planning can fully address.