Half of Ukrainians Now Prioritize Peace Over Military Victory, Rating Poll Finds

More than half of Ukrainians now view peace as preferable to military victory, according to a survey by the Rating sociological group released this week^[1][2]. The shift reflects deepening war fatigue after more than two years of Russia’s invasion and suggests the political ground is shifting beneath Ukraine’s negotiating position.

The poll found that 56% of Ukrainians would accept territorial concessions in exchange for credible security guarantees from the United States and Europe^[1][2]. Another 3% would support territorial concessions under any conditions, while 35% remain opposed to any land surrenders^[3]. On the question of ending hostilities, 57% favor an immediate ceasefire and compromise through negotiations^[1][2][4], with 83% broadly supporting a negotiated resolution^[1][2].

The remaining respondents split between hardline positions: 13% insist on fighting until Ukraine reaches 2022 borders, while 21% demand restoration of 2014 lines – a position that would require recapturing Crimea and the Donbas^[1][2][4].

This represents a notable departure from earlier polling. In August, a separate survey by the KMIS group found that 60% of Ukrainians rejected surrendering Donbas territory even with security guarantees^[2]. The Rating poll suggests that calculus has shifted dramatically in just two months, driven by grinding attrition, energy shortages heading into winter, and the visible toll of mobilization on Ukrainian society.

The data matters less as a snapshot of current opinion than as a warning signal for Western policymakers. Ukraine’s government has consistently framed the conflict as existential and non-negotiable, with President Zelenskyy maintaining that territorial concessions would reward Russian aggression. Yet if public support for that position continues to erode, Kyiv faces mounting domestic pressure to explore settlement terms – potentially before Western capitals believe conditions are favorable for negotiations.

The timing is also significant. The poll was conducted amid ongoing uncertainty about U.S. policy direction heading into elections, European divisions over defense spending, and no clear pathway to Ukrainian military advantage in 2027. When majorities begin preferring negotiated settlement to continued conflict, the political window for maximalist outcomes closes rapidly.

What this means for the Ukraine-Russia War order: Western security commitments to Kyiv now face a credibility test. If the U.S. and Europe cannot offer security guarantees robust enough to convince Ukrainians that territorial concessions are worth the trade-off, the entire negotiation framework collapses. Conversely, if Western powers do offer such guarantees, they’re effectively accepting a frozen conflict with territorial losses – a scenario that contradicts years of rhetorical commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty within 1991 borders. The Rating poll has just made that contradiction impossible to ignore.