Ben-Gvir Pushes Gaza Resettlement Plan, Testing Coalition Stability

Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s Minister of National Security and leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, announced plans to return to the evacuated settlement of Nisanit and expand Israeli civilian presence throughout northern Gaza, according to reports from September 27. The statement reflects an escalation in pressure from Ben-Gvir’s faction to formalize what has been implicit Israeli policy: permanent resettlement of Gaza territory.^[1][2]

Ben-Gvir’s declaration – “We will return to the evacuated settlement of Nisanit and to northern Gaza and all parts of the sector to rebuild and expand settlement without limits” – marks a direct challenge to the coalition’s fragile consensus on post-conflict Gaza governance.^[1] The timing matters. Ben-Gvir has spent months positioning his party as the guardian of maximalist settlement expansion, particularly after a two-month absence from the government in early 2025 that demonstrated his leverage over Netanyahu’s coalition arithmetic.

The National Security Minister commands six Knesset seats – not enough to collapse the government alone, but enough to trigger a cascade of departures if he exits. His party’s coalition discipline has historically been volatile, and his willingness to threaten withdrawal has forced Netanyahu to accommodate demands on judicial reform, budget allocation, and now territorial policy. Ben-Gvir’s Gaza resettlement push tests whether Netanyahu can maintain his centrist coalition partners while satisfying his far-right flank.

The announcement arrives as internal pressure within the governing coalition has intensified. United Torah Judaism, another coalition partner, has been navigating its own internal tensions, with reports documenting closed-door meetings revealing pressure within the faction.^[3] Meanwhile, opposition leaders have been coordinating to unseat the Netanyahu government, signaling that any coalition fracture could trigger new elections.

Ben-Gvir’s push faces structural obstacles. International pressure against Gaza resettlement remains substantial, and the logistics of civilian return to a territory still experiencing active security operations present both security and administrative challenges. The Israeli military would need to guarantee territorial control sufficient for civilian habitation – a commitment that has not been formally made. Additionally, any large-scale resettlement would require coalition approval for budget allocation and basic law amendments, processes that expose internal disagreements.

The coalition math remains Ben-Gvir’s leverage. If he withdraws from the government over Gaza policy, Netanyahu loses his 32-seat coalition majority and faces either new elections or a dramatic shift in coalition composition. That pressure has historically bent Netanyahu toward accommodation with far-right demands, even when they contradict positions held by other coalition members.

What this means for the coalition math: Ben-Gvir has signaled that Gaza resettlement is now a red line for his continued participation. Netanyahu must decide whether to absorb the political cost of resisting far-right territorial demands or risk the coalition stability that has held since 2022. The next test will come in coalition negotiations over the 2027 budget and any formal post-conflict Gaza governance framework.