Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Defines Deterrence as Making Aggressors ‘Pay the Cost’ of Conflict

A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated this week that deterrence means forcing aggressors to bear the cost of their aggression in ways that prevent repetition, emphasizing the use of economic and political measures as tools of accountability ^[1]. The statement reflects Tehran’s strategic calculus as it navigates Western sanctions and regional military pressures, yet the doctrine faces immediate tests on Iran’s own soil.

The rhetoric comes amid active security operations in Iran’s southeastern provinces. On September 23, the IRGC’s Land Forces reported the killing of five militants and the capture of others during an operation in Sistan and Baluchestan province ^[1]. According to the IRGC’s Jerusalem Command unit, the operation dismantled what officials described as a terrorist cell in the city of Saravan, located in Hormozgan province in Iran’s south ^[1]. The operation resulted in the seizure of weapons and ammunition from the militants’ hideout ^[2].

The operation turned costly for the IRGC itself. Major General Hossein Zareifi, commander of the ‘Sajad’ regional operations headquarters within the Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed during the action, according to reports from Iranian sources ^[3]. The death of a senior regional commander underscores the intensity of security challenges facing Iran in its southeastern border regions, where militant groups have conducted operations for years.

The timing of the IRGC’s deterrence statement and the loss of a senior commander illustrates the gap between strategic doctrine and operational reality. Tehran’s emphasis on making aggressors “pay the cost” through economic and political pressure reflects a preference for indirect confrontation – the approach that has defined Iranian strategy across the region. Yet the operation in Saravan demonstrates that Iran simultaneously faces direct, kinetic threats from armed groups within its own territory, threats that cannot be deterred through sanctions or diplomatic pressure alone.

Mohsen Radaei, a representative of the IRGC, separately warned neighboring countries against interfering with Iranian aircraft flights or participating in what he characterized as “American adventures,” signaling Tehran’s concern about external pressure even as it manages internal security crises ^[4].

The IRGC’s deterrence doctrine, centered on making adversaries absorb unacceptable costs, has become a cornerstone of Iranian military and political messaging. The approach assumes rational actors who calculate costs and benefits. But the southeastern operation reveals a more complex threat environment, where non-state actors and insurgent groups operate according to different logics, and where deterrence through economic measures has limited purchase.