Saudi Aramco CEO Warns Oil Recovery Could Take Until 2027 as Strait of Hormuz Remains Disrupted

Saudi Aramco’s chief executive warned on October 5 that oil price pressures will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and global reserves are replenished, a process that could extend two years beyond any resumption of shipping through the strategic waterway.^[1] The timeline underscores the severity of disruptions to one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints and signals that even a near-term reopening would not quickly stabilize volatile energy markets.

The warning comes as Houthi militant attacks on Aramco facilities have escalated regional tensions and demonstrated the vulnerability of Saudi oil infrastructure. On October 4, Houthi military forces claimed responsibility for launching ballistic missiles and drone strikes targeting Aramco facilities in Riyadh and the Khurais area, according to multiple reports.^[2] Satellite imagery confirmed fires at Aramco installations in Riyadh following the October 3 attacks originating from Yemen.^[3] The incidents prompted an immediate market response: Brent crude futures rose by approximately one dollar per barrel following Yemen’s announcement of targeting Saudi Aramco facilities.^[4]

The economic toll of Strait of Hormuz disruptions has already been substantial. In May 2026, Aramco’s CEO reported that the world had lost approximately one billion barrels of oil over the previous two months, with energy markets expected to require extended periods to stabilize even if oil flows resumed.^[5] Credit rating agency Fitch warned in March that oil prices could average $120 per barrel if the strait remained closed for six months – a scenario that would reverberate through global energy and financial markets.^[6]

The geopolitical stakes surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have drawn international attention and military commitment. In March 2026, the White House announced that the U.S. Navy would accompany oil tankers through the Strait to ensure continuous energy flows.^[7] More recently, France joined the United Kingdom in supporting Saudi Arabia with defensive operations against the Houthis, with French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans to deploy troops, radar systems, and air support.^[8]

Kuwait’s Oil Corporation has signaled willingness to increase production capacity, with the corporation’s CEO announcing plans to boost output to two million barrels per day within a week and to support reopening the Strait of Hormuz.^[9] Yet such measures address only supply-side constraints; the deeper challenge, according to Aramco’s leadership, lies in the time required to rebuild global strategic reserves once shipping resumes.

The convergence of supply disruptions, military attacks on critical infrastructure, and extended recovery timelines has created a complex energy security environment. Regional tensions continue to threaten the physical security of production facilities, while the Strait itself remains a flashpoint for geopolitical competition. Aramco’s assessment suggests that even optimistic scenarios for resolving the current crisis would leave global oil markets under pressure well into 2027.