Two-Thirds of Israelis Fear October 7 Could Repeat, Maariv Survey Shows

Two out of every three Israeli residents believe the October 7 attack could happen again, according to a survey conducted by the Israeli newspaper Maariv^[1][2], underscoring persistent public anxiety about the country’s ability to prevent another mass-casualty infiltration despite three years of sustained military operations.

The finding reflects a fundamental challenge facing Israeli security doctrine: maintaining deterrence against terrorist organizations while confronting the possibility that previous assumptions about border security and early warning systems proved inadequate. The October 7 attacks killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and resulted in hostage-taking that lasted 738 days for some captives^[3], an outcome that shattered the perception of Israeli military invulnerability and raised questions about systemic failures in intelligence and response.

The survey’s timing coincides with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz’s recent warnings about Hamas leadership abroad remaining operational threats. Katz stated that leaders of Hamas who orchestrated the October 7 operation from outside Gaza are also targeted for elimination, referencing the killing of a commander from Gaza’s Northern Brigade^[3]. The statement signals that Israeli security officials view the threat as ongoing and multifaceted – not confined to Gaza but extending to the terrorist organization’s external command structure.

Public anxiety about another attack reflects more than abstract fear. It points to a credibility gap between official reassurances and lived experience. While the Israeli military has reported conducting strikes on over 500 locations in southern Lebanon and Gaza over the past month, with more than 370 targets belonging to terrorist organizations^[4], the persistence of such operations suggests the threat environment remains dynamic rather than resolved.

The survey does not specify whether respondents believe another attack is imminent or merely possible, a distinction that matters for understanding public confidence in current deterrence measures. Israeli polling on security matters typically reflects both genuine threat assessment and political messaging, particularly during periods of extended conflict when government credibility is contested.

Three years after October 7, the Israeli public’s skepticism about security invulnerability has become a political fact. This anxiety shapes not only defense spending debates but also public tolerance for military operations and the willingness to sustain the resource commitment required for deterrence across multiple fronts – against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iranian-aligned forces throughout the region.